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Homepage > Publication Type > Watch List

Crisis Group's Early Warning Watch List

Every six months, Crisis Group prepares an Early Warning Watch List to provide the European Union (EU) and member states with analysis and updates on conflicts, and on opportunities for preventive action. Each Watch List identifies up to ten countries or conflicts which are particularly vulnerable to an outbreak or intensification of conflict or crisis – or which in some cases offer an opportunity for prevention or resolution – in the following six to twelve months.

Each country or conflict is chosen from the 70 crisis situations monitored by Crisis Group and regularly reported on in CrisisWatch; the choice of countries is representative of a range of conflicts and is not meant to be all-inclusive or a ranking of deadly violence. Each country summary contains an outline of recent developments and forthcoming events that may increase risks, and lays out opportunities for action for national, regional and international actors, in particular the EU and its member states.

The fifth Watch List published on 10 December 2015 includes the following countries:

Read the full Watch List for December 2015 (pdf).

Project History

This three-year project started in July 2013. It is co-financed by the European Union (EU) under the Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP) and managed by the International Crisis Group and European Peacebuilding Liaison Office (EPLO). It aims to feed into the EU’s conflict early warning system that is being developed as a follow-up to the Council conclusions on Conflict Prevention of June 2011.

As part of this project Crisis Group prepares an Early Warning Watch List twice a year, identifying up to ten countries vulnerable to an outbreak or intensification of violent conflict or crisis in the following six to twelve months. The list includes a short overview for each country or conflict identified, outlining recent developments and forthcoming events that may increase risks.

The Watch List includes forward-looking analyses based on the context-specific knowledge of Crisis Group’s field-based experts, drawing from their extensive networks of local contacts and their long experience and expertise in the countries where they work. It includes specific recommendations for the EU, its member states, and other relevant actors. It aims to raise awareness of those countries or conflict situations that require urgent national, regional and international action to prevent conflicts before they escalate, or to reduce violence that has already flared up.

Past Early Warning Watch Lists

Watch List 5 - December 2015

The fifth Watch List includes the following countries:

Read the full Watch List for December 2015 (pdf).

Watch List 4 - June 2015

The fourth Watch List includes the following countries:

  • Bangladesh
  • Burkina Faso
  • Guinea
  • Iraq/Syria
  • Libya
  • Myanmar
  • Somalia
  • Ukraine
  • Venezuela
  • Yemen

Watch List 3 - December 2014

The third Watch List includes the following countries:

  • Burkina-Faso
  • Colombia
  • Iraq/Syria
  • Israel/Palestine
  • Myanmar
  • Nigeria
  • Somalia
  • Ukraine
  • Yemen

Watch List 2 - June 2014

The second Watch List includes the following countries:

  • Afghanistan
  • Central African Republic
  • Libya
  • Nigeria
  • South Sudan
  • Thailand
  • Ukraine
  • Venezuela
  • Yemen

Watch List 1 - December 2013

The first Watch List includes the following countries:

  • Afghanistan
  • Egypt
  • Somalia
  • Bangladesh
  • Iraq
  • Sudan
  • Central African Republic
  • Libya
  • Syria
 
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