Since its creation in 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has kept only a few of its promises. Its limited economic success cannot mask the many tensions between Russia and its neighbours. Much of the EEU’s future success will depend on its members’ will to shift away from geopolitics and focus on international cooperation, governance, social welfare and migration.
01 July 2016
President Berdymukhammedov met with visiting Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 8 June in Ashgabat to discuss regional security risks and increase military cooperation. Independent Turkmen media ...
Plagued by violence, corruption and economic hardship, and exposed to a long, insecure border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is under dangerous stress. President Rahmon’s autocratic undermining of the 1997 peace agreement is fostering Islamic radicalisation. As Tajikistan’s growing fragility impacts a brittle region, the country must become a conflict-prevention priority.
Kyrgyzstan’s relative stability belies the country’s brittle Central Asian neighbourhood, simmering ethnic tensions, religious extremism and political frustration. Russia, the West and China share interests here, creating a unique opportunity to work together for Kyrgyzstan’s democratic development during and after the upcoming 4 October parliamentary elections.
Kazakhstan’s wish for stability and continuity under long-serving President Nazarbayev trumps the will for political change, especially given turbulence elsewhere on Russia’s borders. But without economic reform, full ethnic equality and a political succession plan, the Central Asian country risks becoming another brittle post-Soviet state vulnerable to external destabilisation.
The Islamic State (IS) is attracting Central Asians to
Syria and fostering new links among radicals within the region. Unless the five
Central Asian governments develop a credible, coordinated counter-action plan,
including improved security measures but also social, political and economic
reforms, growing radicalism will eventually pose a serious threat to their
Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.
China’s influence is growing rapidly in Central Asia at a time when the region is looking increasingly unstable.
Kyrgyzstan’s disregard for its Uzbek community is pushing the ethnic minority to a breaking point.
Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest state and a key logistical link for international forces in Afghanistan, faces a growing security threat from both local and external rebels.
False Calm after Elections in Kyrgyzstan
23 October 2010: Four months after violence against immigrants, Kyrgyzstan is forming a new government. How will this contribute to stability? Crisis Group’s Central Asia Project Director, Paul Quinn-Judge, tells us what's happening, and why. Listen
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